Short brief about the law against online poker in China, how does it work?
Online gambling is illegal in China, making online poker games essentially dead in the country. There are no Chinese legally owned or operated poker sites. As far as the players go, they aren’t breaking the law because it’s not against the law to gamble online, but this still doesn’t mean the government wishes people to play. China is well known for its censoring of the internet and can and will block any websites it does not feel to be appropriate for its people, and this includes gambling and online poker websites.
Despite this, players have found ways and means to play online. And online operators are becoming more innovative in their offerings by not having “real money” transactions but instead use alternatives that can be converted to cash. Officials here do realize that given that there are no Chinese online poker sites, no one is breaking the law as far as far as operating these sites, as the Chinese recognize that these sites are outside their jurisdiction, something that not all countries properly admit to. But once again, in China, Mah-jong and poker games are taken off the approval list following a wave of earlier government crackdowns over concerns that such titles may connected to illegal gambling.
Can people download poker apps?
June 2018, a major crackdown, known as Chinese Black Friday, occurred in China. The government banned all online poker applications, removing them from App Stores, and going as far as forbidding the promotion of Poker on any Social Media. It’s not that they always block poker websites, but this can certainly happen here, although the first thing you need to know is that this blocking is limited to the online poker website itself. People aren’t blocked from playing there, the most they can be blocked from is downloading the software, and once they do that, they are in the clear.
The Chinese have been well accustomed to getting around censorship, and the use of virtual private networks (VPN) to access the internet is very popular in general because of the Great wall firewall, and this is the tool that online poker players use to get around these poker related restrictions.
So, all you do is log on to the network and then you can travel to any site you wish without government detection, Android APK and IOS “Enterprise” workaround solves the problem. So there are now a lot of online poker players living in China and while there is still a lot of room for growth, as not everyone is aware of this means of playing, the market here is expected to continue to grow.
Can people pay for the online apps?How online payment works for those apps?
Yes, they can, but not through an official way. We all understand the APP is totally free but for playing games need real money. Taking example of Poker Master, which is not a cash deposit site, player can do an in-app purchase for getting some virtual items, but for playing in the games their funds will flow to home game host or the agent who raises the game with gateway/mobile payment methods. Taking example of Poker King, which is a cash deposit site, they have payment service provider to allow players directly deposit/withdrawal with both gateway/mobile payment methods.
Information about prices of poker apps and prices of all features inside poker apps.
Note: * screenshots attached, ** means in-app best seller
Game Type: Normal(普通模式), Super(血战模式), Ultimate(血进血出), Bleeding(血流成河)
Joker Mode: With Joker(有癞子), No Joker(无癞子)
Dealing: Sequence(顺序发牌), Concurrent(同时发牌)
View: Horizontal(横板), Vertical(竖版)
Bleeding: Head cards to Fantasyland, three of a kind 17 cards, AA 16 cards, KK 15 cards, QQ 14 cards, Players stay into fantasylands will get same amount of cards as his/her first fantasyland.
Volume: In the past, highest estimate number 1000 tables/day (including tables existing very short period), valid 800 tables/day in total.
「Hi Poker」 was called 「Ace Poker」 back to late 2017, its registered numbers at that time was about 88,000 players with duplicated accounts counted (unique players ~ 40% – 35,000 players). In October 2018 「Ace Poker」 finally changed to the name,「Hi Poker」.
It is said that「Hi Poker」 was going to develop their anti-collusion system since 2019. It will randomly choose players asking for a voice message verification during a game. Also, it is said the system will randomly burn a card from the deck and shows to all players in order to interrupt and mislead bots’ calculation system. This sounds promising for security and player experience but nothing came out until today.
There is one unique function on this platform named 「Maximize Boost」 (一键最大) during the play, when players click this button it can automatically sort your cards which maximize the points for this fantasyland hand. It costs virtual coins and proved it’s popular among the players (Revenue come from this can up to highest¥400,000/month). By the way the estimate revenue comes from their virtual coins is about average¥300,000/month.
「Hi Poker」 has stopped running because of the massive 「judicial freeze accounts incident」 happened in early June last year and back online after several months, it is believed that 「Hi Poker」 has business relationship with some major OFC alliance owners from Poker Master. For these alliance owners (so-called 「主机」), they have powerful resources which may finally lead them to target on planting their mini-games API into platforms like 「Hi Poker」.
Poker Master
Level: 1/2/3/5, 5/10/20, 50/100
Game Type: Normal(普通模式), Super(血战模式), Ultimate(血进血出)
Joker Mode: With Joker(有癞子), No Joker(无癞子)
Dealing: Sequence(顺序发牌), Concurrent(同时发牌)
View: Vertical(竖版)
Fantasyland: Three of a kind gets 16 or 17 cards, setup before game starts.
Volume: In the past, highest estimate number 2000 tables/day (including tables existing very short period), valid 1100 tables/day in total. Now, it’s hard to have even one $50 table. During the day, 6-7 tables could be seen up to $20. When the peak time arrives, $50 table become available and may just stay one table.
According to the inner voice from 「Poker Master」, OFC players didn’t grow and there are only 2-3 big alliance owners are hosting for OFC games for long-term business. Also, the OFC bots are everywhere in Poker Master which keeps decreasing the OFC players’ willing of play. Before Poker Master was beaten by bots it can up to 12 tables of $50 and dozens of $5/$10 at the same time but now you can hardly see any high-stake tables.
Platform seems no attention or plans on making any changes for its OFC users as player resource are basically controlled by hosts and 「Poker Master」 is a credit site not a deposit site. Even though, these players will stick to those alliance owners and it’s worth to keep an eye on what will these host do with the traffic. Just like I mentioned before about 「Hi Poker」, inner source shows host from 「Poker Master」 has worked with 「Hi Poker」 already and might planning to do something. I won’t be surprised if there is another new OFC platform comes out in China.
Stakes/Clubs
Hi Poker
Poker Master
Poker Clans
Fish Poker
0.1($0.01)
×
×
✓
×
0.2($0.03)
×
×
✓
×
0.5($0.07)
×
×
✓
×
1($0.14)
✓
✓
✓
✓
2($0.29)
✓
✓
✓
✓
3($0.43)
✓
✓
×
✓
5($0.71)
✓
✓
✓
✓
10($1.43)
✓
✓
×
✓
20($2.86)
✓
✓
×
✓
30($4.29)
✓
✓
×
✓
50($7.14)
✓
✓
×
✓
100($14.29)
✓
✓
×
✓
Normal Stakes/Clubs Size (CNY/USD)
Poker Clans (Deposit Site)
Level: 0.1/0.2/0.5, 1/2/5
Game Type: Normal(普通模式), Super(血战模式), Ultimate(血进血出)
Joker Mode: With Joker(有癞子), No Joker(无癞子)
Dealing: Sequence(顺序发牌), Concurrent(同时发牌)
View: Vertical(竖版)
Hand Points
Jackpot Bonus
55-65
Blinds*100
66-75
Jackpot*5%
76-85
Jackpot*20%
86-95
Jackpot*40%
>95
Jackpot*80%
Volume: 200-300 could be the biggest number of players online at the same time. Tables’ number is big but including tables existing very short period (5-10mins), it’s more like PokerStars 「ZOOM」 game which made me very hard to estimate how many tables they have each day.
Player pool is small and since the platform is target on micro stake players it doesn’t have a high margin. The good thing for 「Poker Clans」 is it’s a cash deposit site and its online MTT has a stable traffic of 2,000-3,000 ppl at the same time which provide its OFC a certain liquidity. As a manner of fact, 「Poker Clans」 is going to launch its mini games (Featuring 「Texas Cowboy」 as 「Coming Soon」) aiming to increase its revenue.
But still, if its strategy is only focusing on Chinese micro stakes then it will never be competitive because players won’t trust it (net deposit increase) unless its brand can go as big as Poker King or other cash deposit sites. When we come back to OFC in 「Poker Clans」, it still has a potential to go big if the platform can be more diversification and make good use of its unique feature 「Jackpot」.
Features
Hi Poker
Poker Master
Poker Clans
Fish Poker
Normal Type
✓
✓
✓
✓
Super Type
✓
✓
✓
✓
Ultimate Type
✓
✓
✓
✓
Bleeding Type
✓
×
×
×
English Verison
×
✓
×
✓
First Fantasyland
17
16/17
17
16/17
Joker/No Joker
✓
✓
✓
✓
Sequence
✓
✓
✓
✓
Concurrent
✓
✓
✓
✓
Horizontal
✓
×
×
✓
Vertical
✓
✓
✓
✓
JackPot
×
×
✓
×
Maximize Boost
✓
×
×
×
Features Landscape
Fish Poker
Level: 1/2/3/5, 10/20/30, 50/100
Game Type: Normal(普通模式), Super(血战模式), Ultimate(血进血出)
Joker Mode: With Joker(有癞子), No Joker(无癞子)
Dealing: Sequence(顺序发牌), Concurrent(同时发牌)
View: Horizontal(横板), Vertical(竖版)
Fantasyland: Three of a kind gets 16 or 17 cards, setup before game starts.
Volume: In the past, highest estimate number 150 tables/day, 6-7 tables up to $20 at the same time.
Players mainly form Chongqing City, Sichuan Province, Xian City and Shanxi Province, and a few groups of players come from Beijing and Zhejiang Province. This territoriality shows the path of its marketing which also means most of the hosts in Fish Poker stays in above areas/cities in mainland China.
「Fish Poker」 turned out to just have a tiny market share of OFC, its OFC games are all relied on club hosts and missing of the alliance structure also restricted the growing of those clubs. This just made all club hosts discrete which for sure restricts the scale of its traffic eventually.
Stakes/Clubs
Hi Poker
Poker Master
Poker Clans
Fish Poker
0.1($0.01)
×
×
25
×
0.2($0.03)
×
×
×
×
0.5($0.07)
×
×
18
×
1($0.14)
3
5
15
2
2($0.29)
3
5
15
1
3($0.43)
×
×
×
×
5($0.71)
3
10
15
1
10($1.43)
2
12
×
2
20($2.86)
1
7
×
×
30($4.29)
×
×
×
×
50($7.14)
×
1
×
×
100($14.29)
×
×
×
×
OFC table volumes (GMT+8 Evening)
OFC Player Landscape
I will define the OFC players into two groups, A & B.
Group A are those players who play the private games hosted by agents or alliance. They will be raked heavily by the game organizers and most of them can be found on 「Poker Master」, 「Hi Poker」 and 「Poker Clans」. Group B are those who play regular games in public hall or held private games by themselves where they won’t be raked that much. It is believed that in 2017 all users belong to group A and then started to switch to group B since the players noticed that they can’t profit because of variety reasons such as rake, pro and cheats . Now the scale of group B players is much bigger than group A players.
It is believed that there are around 80% of the group B players play in 「Poker Master」 and around 15% in 「Hi Poker」. If we see the market as a $100 cake to buy, I believe the group B players can afford $90 and the group A can only afford $10. Especially when the group B players have formed a stickiness to platforms, there are chances they may just switch between group A and B over and over again. After-all player stickiness is the increased chance to utilize the same product or service that was bought in the last time period. Overall, the growth speed of OFC players are extremely slowly in China and also missing good local platforms which is very unlikely to happen in recent years.
DO ANY ONLINE BETTING SITES ALLOW PLAYERS FROM HERE?
China*
Illegal, except via state-run sites
Yes
India
Probably legal
Yes
Hong KongSAR
Illegal, except via state-run sites
Yes
Macau SAR
Legal
Yes
Malaysia
Probably legal
Yes
Philippines
Illegal, except via state-run sites
Yes
Singapore
Illegal, except via state-run sites
Yes, but very few
South Korea
Probably legal
Yes
Thailand
Illegal, except via state-run sites
Yes
* The laws of mainland China (excluding Hong Kong and Macau) prohibit almost all forms of gambling, including online sports betting. The only exceptions are government-run gambling terminals and lotteries. The Chinese government has taken steps to restrict access to online betting sites, though many residents have found ways around this (usually by purchasing a VPN) and many online sportsbooks hosted in foreign countries offer their services to people in China.
Key Factors in Asians Choosing a Sportsbook
Safety/Anonymity: Since so many countries in Asia render it illegal to use offshore sportsbooks, finding a site that will keep personal information secure and can process transactions in a way that doesn’t hand over banking details to third parties is often a big concern.
Accessibility: Accessibility is about more than just bare access. Users want to be able to log-in from anywhere these days, no matter the time of day or the platform. It’s becoming increasingly common for bettors to make wagers on their mobile devices anytime in a day.
Ease of Use: Does the sportsbook have a user-friendly look? Does it offer support services in users’ preferred language? Is it clear how to deposit and withdraw? All above will affect how enjoyable their experience is.
How Do Chinese Residents Deposit & Withdraw?
The authorities strictly regulate and block financial transactions with online sportsbooks. As with many countries in Asia, the best option for Asian bettors is likely an e-wallet such as 「Neteller」 or 「Skrill」. And for Chinese bettors, the option is likely the two dominated online payments, 「WeChat Pay」 and 「AliPay」 (China version of 「Paypal」 or 「Square」).
Asian Sportsbook Business Model Landscape
In Asia, the betting market is quite large but uncoordinated. However, in early 2017, the Asian sector has become a leader in the field of global betting, and it continues to hold the leading positions. According to statistics, 40% of bets in the world are placed in Asia. The bookmaker’s list in the Asian betting market is growing every year, and so far, the players’ demand outpaces supply.
Asian bookmakers, like their colleagues from other regions of the world, mostly work under offshore licenses from the Philippines, the Isle of Man, Macau, Hong Kong, and Singapore.
The policy of the Eastern bookmaker’s offices is different from the Western, so they have gained a certain reputation that allows them to attract professional betters from all over the world. For example, in Asia, they do not have limits of bets for experienced players who carry out their analysis.
European Bookmakers | 1X2 Bets | Fixed Odds
This is the oldest model. These bookmakers simply offer odds on matches and customers can bet on these events. This model is more profitable for European bookmakers and crush 98%+ of the people who are using them not only because this is not a fair model (they take huge margins on the odds) but also only allow small or losing players to bet with them. Winners are not welcome, specially not if they bet big and understand how to exploit their entire model.
Here is an example of a 1X2 bet on a Champions League math from Bet365. FC Barcelona wins @ 1.16 / Draw @ 7.00 / Boavista FC wins @ 20.00, we can figure out the margin, (1/1.16)+(1/7.00) + (1/20.00) = 1.0549 (The 5.49% is the margin).
The reason they are also called 1×2 or Fixed odds bookmakers is because they mainly focus on Win-Draw-Lose outcomes and the odds are not directly affected by money that is being bet. They also offer a very big variety of special bets like over-under, correct score, both teams to score, goalscorers and so on. These types of bets are charged with bigger profit margin. Bookmakers in this category are nearly all the bookmakers the big betting public know. Some of the European 1×2 bookmakers are Unibet, Bet365, Ladbrokes, William Hill, bwin. Since these bookmakers allow no big winning players, they don’t have to fear huge losses. This is their weak point as odds adjustment often is slow and can be exploited.
Exchanges
These types of bookmakers directly link players and charge a commission for their services and do not risk losing money in the process. Betfair™ and Matchbook are the biggest examples. Exchanges like Betfair™ are mostly used for sports trading since the commission fee only is charged on the net winnings.
Though exchanges are getting popular globally, Asian players still love fixed odds plus Asian handicap which will be explained as below.
Asian Bookmakers | Asian Handicap | Dynamic Odds
These types of bookmakers offer a newer model that is much fairer overall. Unlike 1×2 bookmakers, they focus on Asian handicaps to offer 50%-50% type bets on a football match which allows then to offer dynamic lines that move directly based on the money that comes in. For example, if 50%-50% odds are Home 1.952 – Away 1.952 and I bet let’s say 1000€ on the home side the odds will instantly change to 1.892-2.01. This way they created a self-regulating system where the market sets the price. They allow for bigger bets and winning players are welcome as they help them set the lines correct. The way they make profit is by having huge turnovers which allows them to only changer small margins compared to the European business model. A side effect is that most of the times the odds are set very tight. Another important to know is that big money always comes into the Asian market first and the European market adjust their odds based on the this a tiny bit later. The most used Asian bookmakers are Pinnacle, SBOBET, ISN, 188Bet
How Asian Handicaps work? Asian handicaps work like handicaps in NBA or NFL with the only difference that sometimes there is a “half win” or a “half loss” where part of the stake is returned. The over / under lines work in a similar way. It might be confusing at first, but it will become clear and easy to understand as the picture below.
7 differences about the Asian Sportsbook (compares to European)
Their traders take positions in games and keep the prices. Others just follow the market. This also means that most of these Asian sportsbooks attract many arbitrage activities, they do not block professional gamblers who place only bets without risks.
Websites are simple, user friendly and usually available in more Asian languages: English, Simplified Chinese, Traditional Chinese, Indonesian, Korean, Vietnamese, Thai and sometimes Japanese even.
Have more focus on the Asian Handicap market.
Lower margin (maybe lowest) and average odds are much higher than traditional books.
Football odds are extremely competitive, they offer high limits and allow the duplication of the selected outcomes. However, the prices for the other sports are not the best.
24-hour customer support via email, telephone and Live Chat in Chinese.
They never bar from the withdrawal of winnings, no matter how large they may be.
Asian Sportsbook Types
Landed Shops: Asian Bookmakers such as Hong Kong Jockey Club (HKJC), Macau Jockey Club (MJC) or Macau Slot, have dozens landed shops in Hong Kong and Macau. There are also thousands landed shops in China which they all belong to the state-owned 「China Sport Lottery」.
Cash Site: Players can bet with the exact amount of their deposits only, no credits allowed. These types of bookmakers values chances of sponsoring a well-known European football club because they will need to strength their credibility in order to build bettors’ trust for more deposits.
Credit Site: Players can bet within a certain amount of credits; this usually go with high-stake bettors and the credits are authorized by their affiliates.
Affiliate Attitude
Affiliates may be the most important key element to a bookmaker’s success in Asia. The affiliate offerings can be very aggressive among different competitors. Bookmakers never set limits on how much money affiliates can make with them, they all share the same consensus: whoever get more affiliates’ help wins.
Common affiliate offerings are revenue shares, acquisition bonus, referral commission of affiliates (possible pyramid affiliate structure), deposit commission and so on.
Speaking of which, Singbet, one of the biggest private bookmakers in Asia offers the most football leagues and events both pre-match and in-play and it operate a 「shareholder」 business model, which pays-out lucrative commissions and rewards to agents. Minimum 45% position taking for the agents, i.e. only 45% of the bet staked is valid.
You can enter the Asian sports betting market if you have a partner that is worth to be trusted, and who understands the specifics of the region. You also need to understand the features of the promotion, the needs of the audience, deal with financial issues very carefully and avoid all the pitfalls.
十年也好,二十年也罢,结束了就是结束了,没开始就是没开始。我突然想起公司的Slogan,「We Are Poker」,扑克之星也许是一代扑克人共同的回忆,但人们早就对它不再保有人生若只如初见。一家公司从来就不是扑克的全部,它只是包含与被包含捶与被捶的关系,它完整了扑克,扑克完整了我们。但我还是相信,随着扑克之星的离开华人玩家中仍然有人不免如我这般抚今追昔,即便这样的人已经不多。当我们回头重新品味定义自己曾经走过的扑克之路,除了那些丰碑礼赞经验教训外,对于时代的回忆至多也不过令你我在记忆深处得到些许牛逼哄哄的顾影自怜和不为人知的伤感与美好罢了。于是我开始本能地有点相信,扑克并不是选择离开了我们,而是选择存在于它应该存在的地方。继续向前追寻,你的真诚就躺在梦开始的地方。十年,回忆起来似乎还很近,又实实在在的遥远了,我甚至没有什么像样的经历能把这十年时间填满,逝者如斯。
我打算直接走进去。于是我稍显笨拙地跨过隔离栅栏,这很重要,掩饰身手以迷惑躲在暗处的watcher是基本的战术素养。即便我手上提着不少东西,理论上也的确走不快。我跨过栅栏,瞥了一眼身后毫无动静的警车,加快脚步来到正门。这时候一个皮肤黝黑的尼泊尔哨兵从暗门闪出阻挡了我的去路,他完全没有给我台阶,一边向上拉扯口罩一边怒目圆睁地向我发难,“What the fuck are you doing here? Where are you going?”。
这是一位不甚友好的国际友人,于是我警惕地向上拉了一下口罩。“801, delivery, Mr. Song”,我严谨地站在一米五开外抑扬顿挫又不卑不亢地说。
听到我的回应,哨兵松开眉头露出了一个“原来如此”却又再次眉头紧锁面露狐疑的表情。显然,“Mr. Song”是我临危不乱的神来之笔,这个陌生的名字成功地扰乱了哨兵的思绪,他好像在哪里听过却又怎么也想不起来,气氛相当诡异,形势相当紧张。我立刻补充道,“Diu, come on don’t waste time la”,我咄咄逼人的粤式英语使他面露难色,“But…it’s still 15mins to 5pm Sir”,漂亮,他用了敬语。
我轻松而欢快地转头望向警车笑道,“What if he say yes?”。尼泊尔哨兵诚惶诚恐,连忙点头称是。旋即,我小心翼翼地走向警车,车窗摇下是一位三十上下的年轻警官,阿Sir一边伸出小手调小电台音量一边有如耳背般大声发问,“搞乜吖?”。
工会作为工人阶级最普遍的群众性组织,在中国是存在的,但它的功能有所不同,因为中国工人还无法成为一个与现代化大生产相联系的独立阶级。“中美合则两利”便在这种情况下。找到了历史的勾兑点。不光美国的制造业来到中国,中国也敞开大门拥抱世界,这其中标志性的事件是入世谈判。在现代中国总设计师的路线方针下,朱镕基在白宫草坪上热情洋溢地喊出了“I love American People”,经过不亚于今天中美贸易战的一场场谈判和极限施压后,美国终于同意,带着中国正式开始掺和全球财富分配链条。中美在这一刻,深深拥吻在一起,不能自已,发生了关系,咳咳。
但很快我就发现,这首歌的乐趣就在于「Don’t Dream」与「It’s Over」之间没有逗号。同时,约翰列侬1970年「God」的最后一句「You’ll just have to carry on. The dream is over」也提供了一个很好的情境参照物,「梦想结束」的概念瞬间扭转,变成了「不要放弃梦想,努力改变世界」,我又对英语充满希望了。
于是每个听过这首歌并喜欢它的人很自然地开始赋予他们心中对于这首歌的形象。Paul Young(保罗‧杨)与Sixpence None The Richer (啷当六便士合唱团)都对这首歌有过经典的演绎,你会发现同样的旋律却各自有着全然不同的诠释。
乐队主唱兼作词人Neil Finn曾经说这首歌实际上是他和他老婆吵架后写出来的,但他也说,「On the one hand feeling kind of lost, and on the other hand sort of urging myself on: Don’t dream it’s over」,所以给人一种「既失落,又想激励自己」的感觉。另外,「霍比特人」片尾曲「Song of the Lonely Mountain」也是出自Neil Finn。
2020 Live from home, for the “Music From The Front Line” benefit concert in Australia / NZ
There is freedom within, there is freedom without (人生而自由,天地也无常) Try to catch the deluge in a paper cup (所以灾难注定爆发,冰冷高墙终会倒下) There’s a battle ahead, many battles are lost (前方仍有一场恶战,纵使我曾败绩累累) But you’ll never see the end of the road While you’re travelling with me (但你我同游便一定能坚持到底) Hey now, hey now (现在此刻) Don’t dream it’s over (不要放弃你的信念) Hey now, hey now (任何时刻) When the world comes in (现实总是很残酷) They come, they come (当这样的世界来临) To build a wall between us (在你我之间筑起一道墙) We know they won’t win (我们也知道胜利终归这里)
Now I’m towing my car, there’s a hole in the roof (拖着那顶上还有破洞的车) My possessions are causing me suspicion but there’s no proof (虚幻的物质和财富令人起疑 苦无证据) In the paper today tales of war and of waste But you turn right over to the t.v. page (今天的报纸满是报道战争和伤亡 但你却偏偏就翻到影视版) Hey now, hey now (嘿 听我说) Don’t dream it’s over (不要放弃梦想) Hey now, hey now (此时此刻) When the world comes in (面对这个残酷的世界) They come, they come (风雨欲来) To build a wall between us (高墙耸立) We know they won’t win (谁也不能令我们将胜利拱手相让)
Now I’m walking again to the beat of a drum (我终于再次循着鼓声走向战场) And I’m counting the steps to the door of your heart (用尽力气一步步走向心中的终站) Only shadows ahead barely clearing the roof (只见阴影缠绕勉强露出屋顶) Get to know the feeling of liberation and relief (唯有如此才能体会真正的释放与解脱)
Hey now, hey now (嘿 听我说) Don’t dream it’s over (不要放弃梦想) Hey now, hey now (此时此刻) When the world comes in (面对这个残酷的世界) They come, they come (山雨欲来风满楼) To build a wall between us (斑驳老墙几时休) Don’t ever let them win (不放弃 荣光便终归这里)
政治博彩给我最大的启示,可能就是这世界充满了谎言。假如有一家公司号称可以给政治事件进行统计分析,也许有公司会尝试订阅它的数据,但更可能因为很快被市场发现这些数据偏差太大,最后就无人问津。这不像体育比赛,公开透明的规则下的快速反应有模式有规律,而政治活动的主体是人,是人就会撒谎。这就是民调常常失效的直接原因,毕竟你永远无法给说谎带来的期望偏差订一个标准。就像那句美国谚语,Lies, damned lies, and statistics.
回看金将军,我打算找找类似的赌局。可就连睚眦必报肚里长牙的PaddyPower都没有这么个标的。这不太可能是爱尔兰人的一个疏漏,而是没人敢随便开罪独裁者,因为就算金将军是Deadpool的影迷,也绝不希望看到有一个属于自己的Dead Pool。何况交易所也没多少人真的愿意交易,它的公开信息实在太少了。好在最后,我还是在PredictIt上找到了类似的合约,它的描述是“金将军是否在今年末仍是朝鲜最高统帅?” (Will Kim Jong-Un be Supreme Leader of North Korea on Dec. 31?),这还是一个始于4月28日的新合约,很隐晦了,干得好。
中国的年轻人,总是苦大仇深,似乎天生使命召唤,或是和这个世界有着深深的误会。要不然,是不是“被误会”了(misunderstood to misunderstand)?要知道世界上不是只有两种人。不是这个“群体”认定的就是正常人,跟“群体”意见不合就要扣顶帽子。不吃麦当劳,就很Anti-America吗?但是又他妈很喜欢喝可乐,怎么办。不爱吃生鱼片,就算反日了吗?但是又好喜欢吃拉面,怎么办。这人如果是你,不如你来告诉我该怎么办,这社会会把你分成哪种人?然后,一分手女朋友就能把男友归为渣男,一辞职老板就可以说下属是个傻逼,一没钱民众就能怪政府无能。这种逻辑完全不需要思考,又快又有立场。你批评我写文章很烂,我就说你不懂文学。简单好用,不是么?
1883年,“马克辛重机枪”被英国爵士马克辛(Hiram Stevens Maxim)发明并注册专利,1885年马克辛在展示机枪使用后成立公司进行销售。“马克辛重机枪”的射速是550-600发/分钟,这令当时各国的武器专家普遍认为这种武器的发明没有任何意义,因为它极高的射速会过大的消耗和浪费军事资源,太他妈浪费了。所以最初的采购,仅仅是为了宣传居多。第一个采用“马克辛重机枪”的军事单位是1889年的新加坡志愿军,随后这款武器开始在英国军队中配发。“马克辛重机枪”真正初露头角是在1893-1894年的第一次马塔贝勒战役,英国以50人的军队操作四挺“马克辛重机枪”击退了5000祖鲁人,开阔地形的机枪火力网足以瓦解任何步兵冲锋的意志。英国诗人兼爱国主义者海莱尔贝洛克当时骄傲地写下:“不管发生了什么,我们已经有了马克辛,而他们没有” (Whatever happens, we have got the Maxim Gun, and they have not)。想来眼下疫情蔓延全世界,在此之前的某些国内小粉红,也大有英国诗人的风范啊:“不管发生了什么,我们已经有了Coronavirus,而世界(还)没有”。
1899年,波兰有个人叫做 Ivan Bloch (1836-1902),他除了是个银行家和铁路金融家外,私底下还是一个业余军事家。他写了一本书,叫做《未来战争的技术经济和政治诸种方面》(《The Future of War In Its Technical Economic And Political Relations 》),他的主要论点如下: